Here is a sobering thought for punters drunk on Have Faith In Me’s undoubted x-factor heading into tonight’s $250,000 Auckland Trotting Cup — he is only a 50-50 chance to stepping away with the field.
That is the opinion of his champion trainer Mark Purdon as the sensational four-year-old seeks his first standing start win in the biggest race of his career.
Have Faith In Me stunned harness racing fans with his last-start third in the Franklin Cup after losing at least 50m with an early rodeo performance, his third gallop and defeat in as many attempts from a standing start.
The fact he cut corners over the last lap while some of his key rivals today were pushed wide probably exaggerated the magnitude of the performance but the bottom line is Have Faith In Me is the next big thing in Australasian pacing, a near copy of his older sister Adore Me.
But will that be enough to give the likes of stablemate Smolda, fellow four-year-old star Hughie Green and proven open classers like Tiger Tara, Mossdale Conner and Ohoka Punter a start and a beating tonight?
That probably depends on how much of a start.
“I think he is the best horse in the race and if he steps away slowly but safely he can come from last of the bunch to win,” says Purdon.
“But the bigger concern is that when he gallops at the moment he can really lose is, like he did last start. And if he has to catch the bunch up while the other favourites are at the front of the field, that could be a huge ask.
“We have continued to give him standing start practice at home but I think he is 50-50 at best to step away with them.”
Have Faith In Me should be aided by having plenty of room as the sole runner on the unruly and he does have a habit of producing his best in the biggest races — he is unbeaten in his four group one starts.
But obviously none of those were from standing starts and if the all conquering Purdon-Rasmussen stable have had an Achilles heal in recent years it has been standing starts.
After all, they have already lost two major standing start Cups as favourites this year because of poor manners, Adore Me in the Hunter Cup and Smolda in the New Zealand Cup.
Smolda appeals as the logical danger to his stablemate, especially after improved track work right-handed this week. He has never looked 100 per cent comfortable right-handed but Purdon says he is happier with that aspect of his training.
Smolda was the best of the open class pacers at New Zealand Cup week when luckless in the Cup and the Free-For-All and if he begins well he could get to the markers early, which would again greatly assist him in getting around the track.
Like Have Faith In Me he has at least one question mark over him tonight but he still represents the best each way value in the race.
More reliable options include Tiger Tara, who has the manners to sit handy on the markers from barrier one and has a good group one record, although he was disappointing at Cambridge last Thursday.
Hughie Green was second to Tiger Tara’s fourth in that race and has been great from a standing start so again could settle a long way in front of Have Faith In Me.
Mossdale Conner is always a small win but far greater place chance while Ohoka Punter may be driven quieter than usual from one on the second line and looks the blowout hope, along with Te Kawau, who seems happier back in the North than during his Cup week campaign.
Approved By Dean Baring www.harnessbred.com
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